On FCD's slow start: let's go with "nagging concern"

Two things can be true: that it's not time to throw things across the room but it's OK throw a little side-eye toward this slow start

The opening weeks of MLS also happen to be open season for wild overreactions. Pretty much the same in any sport.

So FCD losing two of its first three, including one at home, is low hanging fruit for wide-eyed, just-add-water worry. Hence, a fair number of folks who regularly spend Saturday nights at Toyota Stadium are fighting over who can bang the panic button harder. We tried to talk them off the ledge yesterday.

From yesterday: The case for calm amid FCD’s slow start

But two things can be true. FCD fans can be calm in the moment, but also be concerned, or at the very least “watchful.” That’s about where I am. The concern falls into two classes:  one big pressure point and then a short stack of little ones. Let’s dive in:

The big pressure point

FC Dallas has a good roster. It’s a worthy mix of experience and youth, with a helpful blend of players smack dab in their career prime. (The best example is Nkosk Tafari, who is now “old enough to know and still quite young enough to do,” as we sometimes say.)

And the roster has some depth. Even missing six or so starters FC Dallas can field a team of 11 that most of us look at and say, “OK, not too bad at all.”

What I don’t see at the moment is a roster that’s a snug fit for the way Nico Estévez wants to play. None of this is a secret; people who follow FCD closely started getting tummy aches about this stuff in January. A few of y’all might have even discarded Dry January over it – as in, “This is NO time to stop drinking!”

Particularly concerning was the lack of cover at center back and wingback. The disquiet seemed especially strong about the back line, where FCD’s tactical shift to a 3-4-2-1 would require three center backs in the lineup (rather than just two in last year’s 4-3-3 alignment.) At wingback, Geovane Jesus’ impending return (later this season) could assuage some of the concern, at least.

But that worry over center back was validated Saturday in New Jersey, where two converted central defenders lined up on either side of Tafari. Tafari was his usual steady and reliable self, but couldn’t quite do enough to cover for Ema Twumasi’s struggles on the right. In fairness, Twumasi isn’t a center back; he manned the spot out of necessity (due to injuries to Sebastien Ibeagha and Amet Korca).

Tafari: large and in charge Saturday, as usual — but still not quite enough to cover the gaps (PHOTO CREDIT: FC Dallas)

FCD meanwhile has a glut of central midfielders. Good ones, too. Patrickson Delgado’s pair of impressive showings off the bench only adds to the pileup of potential starters. That’s good.

But if FC Dallas can’t find the personnel answers in the two areas of concern, they could have prime-years Busquets and Iniesta running the middle, and it wouldn’t help much. 

It’s hard to say where the disconnect is in FCD’s technical staff. That is, did Estévez believe he had the personnel to play this way? Or did the team’s personnel staff simply not have time to adjust, taking a more measured and deliberate approach? If they put their heads together and said, “We’ll fill the personnel gaps – but we won’t rush it and get it wrong.” 

I suspect we’ll have more answers as the summer transfer season draws closer. 

A nagging little list of smaller concerns

1. Struggles for the youngs

Personally, I’m not too concerned with right-sided wingback. Paul Arriola will be OK there. And once Geovane Jesus returns, there will be competition and options. Plus, Twumasi provides a good option for times when FCD needs additional defense at that spot.

The left may be a bigger issue. Dante Sealy remains a talented work in progress. He struggled to make an impact against the Red Bulls: his completion percentage on medium distance passing (62 percent) was low among FCD starters. He completed just one cross into the penalty area, and just three progressive passes overall. On his specialty (take-ons) Sealy was 0-for-4. The guy is just 20 years old; he’s going to have these games. The problem is that FCD’s ability to get results and points will suffer in the process.

Marco Farfan, FCD’s steady starter at left back for two years, will be a great option for matches when FCD’s game plan tilts defensive; he could be available as early as Saturday.   

Along the same lines, we can see that Bernie Kamungo will have moments of magic and long spells of inconsistency. It’s what he is. Everyone loves the Bernie Kamungo story — but the time he missed in organized soccer will degrade his bottom line contributions for some time to come.

2. The team misses Illarramendi

There are probably three players FC Dallas absolutely cannot do without right now: Tafari, Maarten Paes and classy veteran midfielder Asier Illarramendi. Sebastian Lletget was quite good against New York, by the eye test and also reflected in plenty of the advanced data. And yet, the team’s ability to connect the back line to the front three was generally poor. A lot of that was not having Illarramendi and his keen eye for breaking lines. And his uncanny ability to read the action out of possession, sniffing out and then intercepting passes, is probably underappreciated.

See that guy in the middle? No. 14? … They need him back on the field

The Spanish midfielder may miss one more week, as FCD may choose caution in getting him back on the field; if they hold him out against Vancouver, he gets an extra week of rest due to the FIFA window that follows Saturday’s match. The problem, however, is obvious: FCD needs to improve Saturday, or they could go into the FIFA break on a three-game losing streak. Ooof.

The big picture issue is what FCD looks like if Illarra, 34, suffers a longer term injury. Double ooof. 

3. Chemistry along the front line

You’d like to think this one solves itself with time. The problem is that you don’t know until you know. Presently, the connections between Petar Musa, Jesus Ferreira and Bernie Kamungo have been somewhere between “a little off” and “Connections? What connections?” 

As I wrote in yesterday’s post, I think things get better before they get worse. The team has good leadership (looking hard at you, Tafari and Arriola) and sufficient talent. 

4. The “cost” of more offense

Pretty much everything you get in life comes with a cost. And it’s not always a cash cost. For instance, I love French fries. But clearly there’s a “cost” in physical performance, waist size, etc.

FC Dallas didn’t generate enough offense last year; 41 goals was tied for 11th in the 14-team West. In its most elementary breakdown, the formation shift to a 3-4-2-1 was about getting one more attacking player on the field. (It’s more than that, but let’s stay on topic here.)

The “cost” I see is worrisome. FC Dallas made the playoffs in both of Estévez’s seasons so far based mostly on good defense. The tight defensive structure was about controlling space, about being in the right spots when possession was lost, in the right places to defend or delay. That was a big part of the team DNA under Estévez. Now, FCD is adjusting, trying to stick the landing on a new balance. Time will tell.

Things aren’t broken, they just need sorting. That said, the clock is certainly ticking.

Yesterday’s companion piece: The case for calm