Panic time at FC Dallas? Nah ... keep calm for now
Two losses in three to open the season ain't great. But there are reasons to believe Nico Estévez and crew can drag the car out of the ditch
I was asked the other day on a podcast how I felt about FC Dallas’ partial stumble out of the 2024 gates? Was it time to hit the panic button as FCD scratched out just three of a possible nine points from its initial threesome of 2024 contests?
Hmmm, how about this: Go ahead and feel free to locate the panic button. Sort of like knowing where the flashlights are — in case the power ever goes out. Even hover over a nervous hand over that panic button if that makes you feel better. But commence to pounding that bad boy?
Nah. Not just yet.
Let’s tug on both sides of this rope, first with the calm, rationed and reasonable contentions. And then we’ll give “Team Pound It” their moment in a separate post tomorrow.
The case for keep calm and carry on supporting Nico Estévez and the men of Toyota Stadium comes down to three things.
Injuries to key figures
Positional flux (some of it injury-related)
And the ongoing adjustment to a new system
You’ll see how they all sort of puzzle piece themselves together, too, so that there’s a damaging multiplier effect.
The injuries – it’s quite a list
Here’s a list of the FC Dallas players who could reasonably be labeled a “starter,” who have missed at least one of three starts due to injury: Sebastien Ibeagha, Asier Illarramendi, Paxton Pomykal, Marco Farfan, Jesus Ferreira, Alan Velasco, Sebastian Lletget and Geovane Jesus. I mean … geeesch.
If you want to quibble with a couple of those being for-darn-sure starters, fair enough. I won’t fight you on it. But we can reasonably settle on … six?
Ferreira, Dallas’ most important man on attack, is back now. But he got hurt a week into preseason and now … well, we could fairly say he’s in “his preseason.” Ferreira wasn’t sharp in his starting debut Saturday in rainy, cold New Jersey. He’ll be better; count on it.
The team so clearly missed Illarramendi against New York and in the second half against Montreal. He’s easily the best pass connector in midfield. (Also, somehow, the FCD man who covered the most ground in the season opener, never mind that he’s 33 years old.)
Saturday in New York, two of the three center backs weren’t even center backs at all. At least Sam Junqua has a teeny bit of experience there now. Ema Twumasi has NEVER played the position. (Yes, there’s a conversation to be had here about roster build – but remember, Team Pound It gets its say tomorrow.)
And none of that is even including Petar Musa, the club record signing who arrived late and missed the season opener. Which brings us to …
Positional flux; it can’t be helpful
Some of this positional flux is injury-related. Some is Musa-related. And some is nothing more than Estévez still sorting out which keys go best into which keyholes in the new 3-4-2-1.
Take team captain Paul Arriola, who hasn’t quite found his feet in 2024.
Arriola initially played as one of the “underneath” forwards. (Estévez calls them “attacking midfielders” in his personal parlance.) FCD needed Arriola there when Ferreira was still on the injury shelf, as he was the best chance creator available among FCD men who play higher up the field.
But as Ferreira got back into the lineup, he can clearly handle the creative element along the line of three up front. Getting him into optimum spaces on the field – operating between the lines, dropping back away from the habitats of more traditional strikers – was a big reason Estevez juggled the team’s entire tactical approach.
So now Arriola gets reassigned to right wingback, where we all sort of assumed he would land when we heard about this new 3-4-2-1. And I think he’ll be OK there.
Last week was tough on everyone because the New York is one of two teams in MLS that press like their very lives depend on it. But it was perhaps particularly hard on Arriola; remember, he trained all during preseason at the forward spot, not along the wing.
Imagine a conversation going something like this:
“So, here’s your assignment tonight, Paul. Never mind that you haven’t played wingback yet our the 3-4-2-1. You’ll be fine. You have to help Ema Twumasi a LOT. He’s not a natural center back. Heck, he’s not even a natural defender; he’s a converted winger. So help him – and good luck to both of you dealing with Emil Forsberg, New York’s new international signing, a damn good winger in Lewis Morgan and a damn good attacking left back in John Tolkin. Quite a triangle on your side, eh? So … yeah … go get ‘em Tiger!”
Arriola couldn’t really get up the field to truly impact the attack, in part because FC Dallas couldn’t establish possession higher up the field. Solid midfield possession is essential, allowing the wingbacks to take up better positions in the final third.
On Bernie Kamungo: he’s young and needs time to learn his position. Which position? Well, that’s the dealio; they haven’t seemed to settle on one. Or maybe they have — it’s hard to say. Because he seems better suited to the inside forward position, unable to cope (for now) tactically on the wing. The coaching staff seems to be equally unsure of his optimum role.
Even rookie Logan Farrington, someone none of us expected to make a meaningful contribution when he was drafted two months ago, has started two matches — at two different positions.
Adjusting to a new system
When Estévez decided to dump the 4-3-3, his steady date for two years in Dallas, for the hot new girl in town — several high profile teams employ the 3-4-2-1, including league champs Columbus and soon-to-be-crowned Bundesliga giant killer Bayer Leverkusen — there was always going to be a transition period.
But we may have gotten pulled offside by some early fool’s gold in that first contest, when 23 shots bested last year’s season high by five. So … we good, right?
Well, teams get the book on you and make you adjust. Then, before you’ve nailed all the details – Where is the space? What pattern plays work on attack? Who can break the lines? What personnel combos work? What is the balance of aggressive attack vs. spacing out of possession? – you have to start adjusting things already.
Bottom line: 23 shots that first match, but then just a combined 24 over the next two matches.
Before anyone starts throwing babies out with bathwater, know this: The system fits Musa (I think) and certainly fits Ferreira. It gets the two best attackers in good spots.
Do they need to iron out this wrinkly suit? Yes. Do they need more crosses, i.e. more service into Musa? Yep. Do they need to be more aggressive in certain moments? You betcha. There surely are things to sort.
Further, if you wonder whether Dallas is sufficiently rich at wingback and center back to play this way, well, you’re surely not alone. But Estévez seems committed – and I would agree. You follow the plan. You trust the plan. Until some point when you’re sure that you’ve gotten it wrong. Then it’s time to remember about sunk cost fallacy and change things up lickety split. But we’re not there. Probably not even close.
One win — big one Saturday against Vancouver, folks — and you’ve got six of a possible 12 points going into the international break. Which isn’t altogether terrible.
Check back tomorrow for the slightly more worrisome look at this thing.