FC Dallas: math, comfort zones and ... issues

No need to get too far in the tactical weeds: sometimes the 30,000-foot view is enough

FC Dallas is confronting an early season crisis.

Three losses in four to open the season isn’t fatal, not with Major League Soccer’s forgiving playoff structure; nine of 14 clubs in the West will qualify for post-season matches.

Injury-wrecked Sporting Kansas City didn’t win a single game over its first 10 contests last year, but got healthy and rallied itself into the playoffs. Seattle has started slowly on the regular and still usually manages to coalesce into an absolute force in the West. The L.A. Galaxy in its Bruce Arena days would tinker and toy for about a third of the year, sorting out its best self, and then go win an MLS Cup.

So these early season struggles can be overcome – but it’s not easy.

There are certainly issues to resolve for Nico Estévez and his staff. We could go far, far into the weeds of tactics and personnel if we wanted; marking inside the penalty area is particularly problematic right now, for instance. Getting stretched too much defensively is another, and then getting beat by vertical passes or in transition, which was Vancouver’s bread-and-butter in Saturday’s 3-1 win at Toyota Stadium.

Some of that helps explain why one of the best defensive teams in MLS over the last two years is conceding way too many goals in 2024.

That simple chart above, goals allowed in the years under Estévez, says so much. There are surely issues on the attack, too; FCD looks a bit lost for chemistry and dynamic ideas. Again, we could once again get into personnel issues and roster build (which I did last week). But I’m not sure we need to. Sometimes, a bit of the 30,000-foot view is better.

When I went back to look at Saturday’s match again I came back to a couple of things: One was comfort zones; the other was just “math.”

On comfort zones (and confidence)

Comfort zones in life are funny animals. On the one hand, they can be confidence boosters. As in, “I know I do this thing well, and it makes me feel good to do something well – so let me do this one thing.”

But wiggling out of our comfort zones can get problematic, mostly because it can leave us vulnerable. “What will people think if I fail? What will I think about myself if I fail?”

So we do what’s familiar, what we know we’re OK at. Which is where FCD begins running into issues.

Look at the photo above. In looking for balls from the wing, Jesus Ferreira (near the penalty spot) is always more comfortable pulling back away from goal. He’s a highly skilled player – the young man, still only 23 years old, has already started a World Cup elimination match – so I always feel a little weird in these moments of critique. And yet this is one: I always want to see more near post runs from him.

In the image, a nice combination play on the left has put Sam Junqua in an excellent crossing position – the very area FC Dallas hasn’t accessed often enough in 2024.

Petar Musa (9) and Dante Sealy (11) have just worked the combination with Junqua. Now, however, they are occupying the same space. Could one have been more aggressive about making that near post run? 

Or could it have been Ferreira? Rather, Dallas’ homegrown attacker does what he has always preferred: pull back into a more comfortable shooting position.

Later in the match, after things had really unraveled for FCD, Ferreira reverted to a habit we saw toward the end of 2023: frustrated by a lack of chances for the team, he drifts wide (typically right, although against Vancouver it was frequently out to the left). He wants to play-make from there – from a comfortable spot. And he does hit an excellent cross from those areas.

But is that what FCD needs in those moments, tactically? If that’s the mission, the order he gets from the sideline, fair enough — that’s not on him. I’m just not sure that’s the case. I’m not sure if he’s occupying those spaces because it’s best for FCD tactically, or because it’s best for Ferreira, because that’s where he’s comfortable? If that’s the case, that’s not ideal.

The image shows where Ferreira (No. 10) found himself way too often in the 2nd half Saturday: in wide areas. Again, it’s not awful. But is it ideal? For one, he’s lost some of the connection with Musa. FCD needs its best two attackers combining and forming chemistry. Instead (as we see here), it puts winger Paul Arriola (in the central spot shadow) into the hole beneath the striker. Result: TWO Dallas men aren’t in their best spots.

Sealy is another one who has comfort zones; he loves to take on players and dribble inside. Which is OK – until it becomes too predictable. Which it is by now.

In the image below, Sealy has the ball in space – with targets arriving into the penalty area. He has a center back isolated (momentarily), and fast wingers isolated against a center back who’s been drawn out wide (Vancouver’s Mathias Laborda here) is exactly what an attacking team wants. It’s absolute red meat to chomp and chew. But again, Sealy reverts to what he’s comfortable with.

Rather than driving toward the end line to look for a cross, he wants to dribble inside – right into an area where defensive help is about to arrive. Result: he gets stripped rather easily, and Laborda plays a ball immediately forward, looking for Ryan Gauld, which is exactly how Vancouver wanted to attack Dallas: in transition.

Sealy did create the free kick that led to Dallas’s only goal. That’s a good moment; I'm just not sure Sealy has strung together enough of those to retain his starting spot at this point.

Sometimes it’s just “numbers”

On our broadcasts, I sometimes talk about “simple numbers” as a harbinger of success. I’m usually talking about the number of players in the attack (which is tactical, but is also about commitment and confidence). Or sometimes it gets even more specific: “runners inside the penalty area.”

Vancouver did a great job Saturday or recognizing certain moments (usually after going direct, in transition) to flood numbers forward. There were times when FCD was caught defending “numbers down.” That just means getting caught with fewer defenders than the opposition’s attackers, a real no-no. Count the number of Vancouver attackers (in the image above): It’s 5 v 4 — as in 5 attackers vs. Dallas’ back line of 4. FCD’s defensive midfielders are behind the play, and the outside midfielders are nowhere to be found.

Or look at the next image: Vancouver has five players inside the Dallas penalty area. A sixth is turning to play a ball backward, about to join his teammates inside Dallas’ 18. That’s righteous commitment to attacking numbers inside the opposition penalty area. It’s a lot to deal with — and it helps explain why Dallas conceded twice on headers in or around the six-yard box, and another on a late runner that wasn’t tracked.

See? Sometimes it’s just “math.”

Contrast that to the next image, one that happens too often with FC Dallas on attack. Arriola has found a good space along the right. The buildup, assisted by Ferreira and Musa has been bright. But Arriola is literally throwing up his hands and asking “where is … anybody?” I saw him do it from the broadcast booth in real time. Clearly, he’d love to cross the ball. But … why would he?

Here’s yet more “math” that worked against Dallas: Vancouver outworked the home team in ground covered and number of sprints, according to the new MLS data provider Sportec. But it’s not just the shear numbers; teams have to work smart, too.

Look at the image below, where FCD is about to press out of a solid mid-block defensive shape. At times this year (like the image below) the press is tied together well and working:

But sometimes it isn’t.

Pressing together, as a unit (which is the only way pressing really works) has been something of an issue this year. Dallas is getting stretched too often. In the image below, Ferreira has pressed Vancouver’s goalkeeper, with Musa (right) and Sealy (left) in good positions. But Patrickson Delgado is late … or perhaps everybody just hasn’t pressed as a unit. Either way, Yohei Takaoka has an easy outlet to Andres Cubas, and the Whitecaps are off and running, ready to exploit the gaps behind the press.

These ARE tactically issues — sort of

These are tactical issues — but only sort of.

I’m just a journo and a youth soccer coach, but I can point out some of the flaws, some of the places FCD looks a little broken right now.

But the tactical issues I’m pointing out are the symptoms; I’m suggesting that if we look a little deeper, confidence and comfort zones may be the bigger issues — along with leadership on the field, players holding one another accountable, etc. But that takes confidence, too. And it has to be in your wheelhouse. In other words, in your comfort zone.

Those may be the larger issues to resolve.

More of that pesky, pure math

All of that adds up to … not not great things for FCD. Here are some troubling numbers:

• 3: Number of crosses (according to Sportec) FCD hit in the first half. That’s just not enough. (The home team did get 11 crosses after the break, but some of that was about Vancouver dropping back, the safe approach for a two-goal lead.)

• 2: Number of crosses for Sam Junqua in the first half. That means the rest of Dallas players contributed just one before the break; that was from Arriola.

• 1.03: Expected goals for FCD in the match. In a home game that felt vital for FCD, that’s not enough.

• 11.5: Number of shots FCD has averaged over the last two home matches. Overall, Dallas is 13th in average number of shots at home (of 29 teams), which isn’t terrible. But take away that highly encouraging 23-shot night against San Jose to open the season, and the picture (and average) quickly changes.

• 0.90: Expected goals / per 90 minutes this year for Dallas (forth from the bottom in MLS)

• 1-2-5: FCD record in its last eight regular season home games, going back to the last five of 2023.

The one HUGE number that still works in FCD’s favor: 30.

That’s how many regular season games FCD has remaining. Plenty.

There’s also U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup.

Tactical issues can be fixed on the training ground. Personnel issues can be addressed by the club’s higher level technical staff. That's on the coaching staff and the front office.

But players have to do their part, too. They have to be brave, trusting themselves and trusting each other to perform their roles. And sometimes it means getting away from your comfort zone.