Peter Luccin’s early run at FC Dallas; what have we learned so far?
The sample is still small, but we know a lot more about how things will look under the manager now in charge
Peter Luccin’s first run of matches in charge around FC Dallas is a fast reminder: few things are ever as bad as they seem. Nor are they usually as good.
Luccin and Co. started with two big home wins, including a five-goal outburst rarely seen at any MLS park, and unseen around FCD since 2021. Things looked bright and crisp, like your sunniest spring day. So maybe things weren’t so bad, after all?
And then the proverbial rains came, as Seattle drenched the scene with a cloudburst of reality.
Clearly the sample remains small: three matches in a season that will stretch to around 40 in three separate competitions. But we can already glean a few things. There’s been some good and some bad to discuss.
Playing vertical
It took about 5 minutes in the new manager’s inaugural match (a 2-0 win over St. Louis) to see the biggest change in the Luccin way: things are going to be “vertical.”
Under Nico Estevez the overarching attacking plan was “possess to unbalance.” That is, keep the ball, shorten the game, endeavor to wear down the opposition while probing and moving them, always on the lookout for passing lanes to open up and attack.
And it sort of worked for Estevez’s first year, along with the added, critical principle of staying well positioned to immediately defend in the event of lost possession. The problem was this: after a year or so opponents knew the deal, and FCD was too often “stuck.” The “possess” part was OK; the “unbalance” thing not so much. By the latter stretch of 2023 the offense was broken, and it didn’t get much better this year, surely suffering in part from the lack of dynamic presence that Alan Velasco and Paxton Pomykal could help provide.
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So Luccin immediately set out in the limited training sessions available to get the team playing forward. Not just playing forward earlier, but doing so with aggression and an attacking verve. It’s not “route 1” necessarily. Rather, it’s connecting through the midfield earlier, then playing into the final third earlier and more confidently. And it’s about making aggressive runs behind the defense upon arrival.
Of course, none of this would come close to working if not for the next thing Luccin immediately attempted to fix …
Individual confidence restored
The best thing to say is that confidence seems to have been restored. At home inside Toyota Stadium, at least.
It was truly amazing how quickly the players’ stores of confidence and attacking swagger seemed recharged and restored. Straight away, as the team met St. Louis you could see the team trying things. Paul Arriola was particularly impactful, absolutely hell bent on attacking along the right flank. By the second game (a 5-3 win over Minnesota) it was Bernie Kamungo making the aggressive runs along the left side.
All along, Arriola and others seemed less afraid to try things; his well-placed ball behind the back line set up Petar Musa’s early goal against Minnesota. And Arriola’s delicate chip into Sebastian Lletget set up Musa’s third that night.
So far, Musa is probably the biggest beneficiary of the coaching change. And that’s not surprising considering …
Musa staying higher up the field
A lot of this was the same stuff being asked by Estevez. Somewhat inexplicably he just couldn’t get the team to do some of it. He wanted more runs in behind the back lines. He wanted the attackers to try things and not habitually default to the safe option, but for whatever reason just couldn’t get the buy-in.
Luccin did. He found the right buttons to push. At least temporarily.
In fact, Luccin did so without changing the basic tactical alignment. For the first two matches he didn’t budge from the 3-4-2-1 that Estevez installed. (For the trip to Seattle the team lined up in a 4-2-3-1, with Jesus Ferreira deployed as the right-sided attacker.)
Along with the confidence and change in playing principle (vertical!), Musa keeping himself higher up the field is the walking metaphor for Luccin’s ability to get players to do more of what’s asked of them. Luccin said right away that Musa is a “box striker.” Clearly, a “box striker” needs to be … yes, in the box, not always checking back to find the ball.
Result: FCD’s record transfer is scoring more. A lot more, in fact, with four goals in three matches. That almost doubles his total from his 14 previous matches with FCD. So, that was a big change — for the home matches, at least.
But then …
Old habits die hard
It took just 10 minutes into Saturday’s bummer of a result against Seattle to see it. I said on the air during our radio broadcast: “Guys, I’m a little concerned because I see some of the old habits creeping back in.”
The tentative movements on attack were the dead giveaways. Against Seattle, inside a stadium where Dallas hasn’t seen a win (regular season or playoffs) in more than a decade, players began asking for the ball in safer places. That swashbuckling, attacking intent seemed lost. Maybe that was tactical, or maybe it was just muscle memory default. Either way, there was precious little threat against Seattle ‘keeper Stefan Frei, who has let in some soft goals this year.
Even scoring two goals came against the run of play. Which leads us to this …
More attacking volume still required
FCD has been beautifully opportunistic in three matches under Luccin so far. To score 9 goals on 26 shots shows two things: the focus and finishing around goal is A+ level, and the chances created have been high value. But there’s one other thing to know, and it’s not great:
This is not sustainable.
Consider the Inter Miami offensive machine is scoring a goal every 5.15 shots, best in MLS. Portland is next with a goal every 6.3 shots. The league average is around a goal every 8.5 shots.
In the last three matches, FCD is banging ‘em in the net once for every 2.8 shots.
It’s such a fantastic ratio that it becomes easy to ignore the statistical elephant in the room: Opponents have out-shot FCD 67-26 over the three-game stretch. Some of that is game state-related. That is, FCD had leads, so teams pushed the attack while Dallas was more content to defend. Some of it.
It also represents how FCD simply must create a higher volume of scoring chances.
Again, that goal-to-shot ratio is terrific bottom line production. And again, not sustainable. In fact, If Luccin and Co. can stay anywhere close to that number, they’ll start climbing the West standings, overtaking teams one by one. Is that even possible? Well, one last thing to consider …
The personnel issues didn’t go away
The two home wins provided a bit of a smokescreen, which served to obscure a hard reality right now around FC Dallas: the personnel matters didn’t magically disappear.
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Those two wins might have made it seem that way. But when Seattle helped clear the air, squashing that early euphoria so unceremoniously, reality came crashing down. Everyone got an open palm slap in the face reminder that Dallas is still paper thin at center back, wingback and defensive mid. And also a reminder that Jesus Ferreira, while still sufficiently talented to be occasionally productive or to spot an open passing lane, is not the same 18-goal scorer from 2022.
Conceding three times after the 78th minute against Seattle is probably one part tactical, one part mental and one part personnel. And with a packed July schedule, that seems unlikely to change. FCD will play 5 matches in 14 days starting July 4, an absolutely brutal stretch, just as the relentless Texas summer heat sets in to full effect.
Reinforcements are badly needed.