What can Nico Estévez and FC Dallas change?
Because it certainly seems time to try something different
Injuries suck. And solutions don’t come easy when a bulk of starters aren’t available.
But that’s the deal around FC Dallas right now. It’s not a good deal — but that’s the deal as Nico Estévez’s club sits 13th of 14 teams in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference. They have to dig hard for answers.
Now winless in seven matches, FC Dallas has mostly stayed the course, generally banking on systematic improvement and a healthy return of key performers. But it simply hasn’t paid off the way anyone around Toyota Stadium would like.
It seems clear that adjustments and adaptations are required, perhaps even of the “drastic” sort. Estévez on Saturday made the clearest indications yet that something different was on the way, lamenting his team’s performance after a 2-1 loss at Colorado.
So, what needs revision? Without further-reaching organizational disruption, potential change comes in two buckets:
Personnel change
Tactical change
Let’s look at the merits for each one:
The case for something different in personnel
A scoreless draw three weeks ago at St. Louis provided some hope. So Estévez went with an unchanged lineup seven days later against Seattle at home. The results were … something less than ideal, to be kind. Turns out, the group that got it done on the road (with more defending and counter attacking) wasn’t the group to get it done at home (with more of the ball).
But this is SOP for Estévez and a lot of other coaches. Put simply, they believe that a group of 11 that produces a positive result one week deserves a chance at the two-fer. And fair enough. Except that the group didn’t come through, muddling along unconvincingly with just 12 shots and generally deficient in attacking threat.
The next week brought one change: Asier Illarramendi, sufficiently healthy enough to start again, replaced Patrickson. (The talented young Ecuadorian midfielder wants to be known simply as Patrickson rather than Patrickson Delgado.) There was reason to believe that Illarramendi’s capacity as force multiplier could inspire more attacking amplitude from the players around him. Except that it really didn’t.
And that brings us to now.
I said it about as succinctly as I could on our post-game show: This collective group (basically the same starting 11 for three matches running) has had its chance; it’s time to try some new players.
And truly, what’s the risk? Because results aren’t going FCD’s way, and the net-out is a season quickly slipping away; this is one of the club’s worst starts yet.
So, who yields their starting spot?
In truth, Estévez could change out a lot of players. The way I see it, there are two who are “doing enough.”
One is goalkeeper Maarten Paes, who hasn’t conceded a bad goal this year and has saved at least one point on his own (with a huge night in St. Louis). The other is Sebastian Lletget, who has consistently put in the work, been tidy in possession and made good choices on the ball.
Plenty of others are trying hard. But at some point “trying hard” isn’t enough for professional sports; you have to be effective.
So, who then?
Again, FCD has used 21 players this year; precious few can say they have been good enough to get penciled in as “certain starter.” By the way, that includes record transfer acquisition Petar Musah. Except that he falls into the category of “has done just enough to justify ongoing starts, if only due to club investment and lack of better options at his position.”
The wingbacks haven’t done enough. We’ve covered Dante Sealy, and his subtraction Saturday at 55 minutes seems informative. Sealy never seemed sufficiently determined to get forward, wasn’t in any hurry to get back and defend on Colorado’s second goal and … well, I’ve got a feeling this was the inflection point we talked about last week, the point in time where Estévez and staff have run out of patience with the young talent. At least for now.
Arriola finds more ways to be involved, but at some point he has to do more as well, particularly on the attack. No goals and no assists over eight starts is concerning for a wingback.
What are the options? Sam Junqua or Marco Farfan (if he can get past the concussion-related issues) can play there. Arriola can move to the left, with Ema Twumasi or Herbert Endeley occupying the right side. Even Bernie Kamungo, who never looked comfortable as a wingback in preseason, may deserve another chance at that spot. He certainly pepped up the attack with his second half introduction Saturday.
Eugene Ansah has basically one thing going for him: he knows a little bit about playing off a target striker (Musah). But that one thing, at some point, isn’t enough. Seems it’s time to give Kamungo or rookie Logan Farrington a shot at running off Musah.
In the midfield, Liam Fraser can be more active. Tsiki Ntsabeleng is an option with far more attacking flair and ability to unbalance defenses. Yes, he has defensive liabilities, and there’s a risk in starting him. Then again, risk-reward must be recalibrated with results are poor anyway. Patrickson is an option, too, although inexperience is a concern.
Going back to the wingbacks, there’s another option. And this is where these two courses for badly needed adjustment converge and interlock:
Maybe they don’t use wingbacks.
The case for tactical change
Yes, the 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 could get Jesus Ferreira into a spot that best utilizes his specific skill set. But his ongoing inability to get healthy surely has to change the thinking. For now the reality is that Ferreira’s ongoing injury struggles make him unreliable as a potential cure.
Estévez had a good plan coming into the year, a methodology for getting the best from his best players. And he talks a lot about “identity.” It’s certainly true that good teams have clear attacking and defending principles.
But it seems that FCD is at the point where “stability at all cost” has to be the order of the day. You can always circle back to pursuit of tactical identity and strategic concepts. For now, anything that gets points is the way.
It reminds me of a line from one of my favorite movies as a kid, when a salty old U.S. Army general says “I’d piss on a spark plug if I thought it would help.” Indeed. Someone find this team a sparkplug to … erm … use.
For FCD, this might mean temporary devolution, a step back into the 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
It probably gets Nkosi Tafari back on the field. (He looked ready for the fight when coming in Saturday against Colorado.) It gets Sam Junqua into a better spot (outside back). Same for Farfan if he can get back on the field. It provides a chance for Kamungo to occupy a more favorable position. Same for Arriola.
And it removes from the equation the one reason to start Ansah, who is a dependable and necessary depth piece, but not a high quality MLS starter.
The case for both
This is where I issue a standard disclaimer, something I love to remind supporters who may be handcuffed by the emotion of the moment:
Coaches aren’t always right — but they ALWAYS have more information than you.
In other words, it’s certainly OK to disagree with whatever Estévez decides, so long as you can acknowledge that he knows the roster’s individual strengths and weaknesses at a different level.
That said …
With a huge derby match ahead Saturday (Houston visits Toyota Stadium), I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Estévez adjust in both ways. In fact, that seems the best option overall: change things. Change a lot of things. Shake things up. Make sure everyone on the training ground understands that they aren’t guaranteed a starting spot.
And demonstrate that you, as a coach, can also be flexible. Which may mean temporarily shelving the bigger plan, the “long game,” to get the wheels back on the car and the car back on the road. Tactically, make adjustments with the understanding that you can always circle back.
Late spring may be nothing more than an exercise in a back alley, life-or-death fight to scrape together enough points to stay relevant in the playoff chase while awaiting reinforcements, whatever that might look like. It seems FC Dallas is there.
Random thoughts: Bernard isn't much of a defensive player, but the offense perks up with his speed on the field, I think the team misses Obrian, who was a real pest around the box, someone needs to replace that. Musa isn't nifty enough to create on his own, but I still think he can be a good finisher if they can keep pounding balls into his spots. I'd rather see them lose 5 -3 than watch an endless cycle of single goals scored